[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] On Monday, refined cobalt prices fell slightly, with supply and demand constraints continuing to cause short-term fluctuations

Refined cobalt:

The price of refined cobalt dropped slightly on Monday. Supply side, smelters maintained long-term contract supply with limited spot offers, keeping ex-factory prices unchanged. The futures market saw price declines due to weekend speculation, prompting traders to lower quotations. Demand side, with persistently high social inventory and lackluster downstream demand, most downstream producers maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish actual trading. The refined cobalt price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Intermediate products:

The spot price of cobalt intermediate products continued its upward trend on Monday, with transactions reported at 12.1-12.2. Supply side, most producers suspended quotations amid bullish sentiment, while a few raised offers further. Demand side, smelters faced losses and weak demand, leading most to consume existing inventory, though some with low stock inquired about low-priced cargoes. Overall, due to DRC’s delayed policies, China’s cobalt intermediate products will face raw material shortages, supporting upward momentum, but downstream demand suppression from rising costs warrants monitoring.

Cobalt sulphate:

The price of cobalt sulphate rose slightly on Monday, with transactions reported at 4.9-5.1 and some large producers at 5.2. Supply side, smelters and traders raised offers amid bullish sentiment. Demand side, ternary orders remained weak, prompting buyers to digest inventory; some Co3O4 producers made purchases, while refined cobalt procurement stayed suspended due to poor economics. With market uncertainty, buyers and sellers showed divergence—upstream held firm on prices while downstream purchase willingness stayed weak, limiting actual trading. Cobalt sulphate prices may continue fluctuating upward this week.

Cobalt chloride:

Current cobalt chloride offers stood at 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with limited trading activity. Supply side, smelters maintained a wait-and-see stance, resulting in thin trading. Demand side, downstream inventory levels were sufficient, with cautious inquiries. Despite higher smelter offers, actual transactions mostly occurred around 6.1, with few at 6.2. Cobalt chloride prices are expected to stabilize at 6.1-6.2 in the short term.

Cobalt salt (Co3O4):

Co3O4 offers ranged between 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with limited spot trading dominated by long-term contracts. Supply side, producers monitored market sentiment, releasing limited cargoes. Demand side, LCO cathode plants held low inventory but adopted a wait-and-see approach. Producers expected transactions at 210,000-220,000 yuan/mt, though high-priced deals were rare. Long-term Co3O4 prices hinge on cobalt inventory levels, with industry stock adequacy through December being a key price driver.

Cobalt powder and others:

Cobalt powder offers remained firm due to delayed raw material imports. Despite increased alloy enterprise inquiries, sluggish alloy demand kept trading volume low. Price fluctuations occurred sporadically, but alloy producers stayed cautious amid high costs and weak demand, maintaining a subdued market. The tug-of-war between supply and demand will persist in the short term.

Ternary cathode precursor:

Ternary precursor prices rose on Monday. Raw material costs: nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices were stable, while cobalt sulphate increases drove precursor prices higher. Spot discount coefficients showed no significant adjustments. Ternary demand remained mediocre, lacking solid support for price hikes. Battery cell manufacturers retained pricing power, responding weakly to cobalt sulphate increases and keeping discount strategies stable. Demand side, the NEV market saw slight growth for 6-series products, while overseas 8-series demand increased modestly, with orders concentrated among top producers. Consumer demand stayed flat. Supply side, restocking in July is expected to boost production.

Ternary cathode material:

Prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary materials rose on Monday. Raw materials: nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate were flat, while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate posted significant gains; lithium hydroxide declines slowed. Weak demand and battery cell makers’ pricing dominance limited material price upside. Discount coefficients are expected to remain stable. Demand side, new car models drove some stockpiling, with orders concentrated at top cell manufacturers. Overseas order shifts impacted cathode material demand. Consumer markets were in the off-season with mediocre orders. Supply side, July restocking may slightly boost production.

LCO:

LCO prices rose significantly due to raw material cost increases: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices climbed, while Co3O4 prices surged amid DRC policy impacts. Supply side, Co3O4 producers offered high prices, dampening LCO cathode plants’ purchase willingness. Demand side, terminal demand entered the off-season, reducing LCO needs. Overall, LCO prices will rise substantially alongside Co3O4 and lithium carbonate increases.

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SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868